Boston goes for sweep of Rays behind Lackey

Baseball Betting Lines

05/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Starting pitching was supposed to be one of the Red Sox's strengths in 2010. That has been the case over their current four-game winning streak, but things could go sour quick if John Lackey can't find his form.

The struggling Lackey, who will start opposite of one of the American League's top young hurlers in the Rays' Matt Garza, will try to lead Boston to its first sweep in St. Petersburg in over seven years tonight when his club wraps up a three-game set with Tampa Bay at Tropicana Field.

The Red Sox have matched their longest winning streak of the season, winning for the fourth straight time last night with a 2-0 victory over the Rays. Boston's starters have picked up the win in each of those four victories while posting a collective 0.32 earned run average.

It's been a nice turnaround for the Red Sox, who were swept in four games by the Rays at Fenway Park on April 17-19. Boston aims for its first sweep of the Rays in Tampa Bay since taking all four games of a series in St. Petersburg from Sept. 9-12, 2002.

Boston would love for Lackey to join the pitching parade after signing him to a five-year, $82.5 million deal this offseason. However, he has struggled to just a 4-3 record this season with a 5.07 ERA.

Lackey has pitched to a 7.50 ERA over his last three starts and lost his second in a row on Friday in Philadelphia, giving up four runs on six hits and five walks while needing 107 pitches to get through five innings.

It was Lackey's shortest outing since the 31-year-old righty lasted just 3 1/3 innings in a setback to the Rays on April 19. Lackey was drilled for eight runs on nine hits in that outing, including a five-run third inning in which Evan Longoria hit a two-run double and B.J. Upton followed with a three-run homer.

That outing came one day after Garza threw eight shutout innings of four-hit ball in a win at Fenway Park, improving to 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 13 career starts versus the Red Sox.

Garza, who is tied for second in the American League with a 2.37 ERA, has pitched eight innings in five of his starts this year, including Friday versus the Astros. The right-hander allowed two runs on six hits, but took a tough 2-1 loss to fall to 5-2 on the season. The 26-year-old Garza is 0-1 in his last three starts despite a 2.91 ERA.

Garza will be looking to slow down Boston slugger David Ortiz, who is hitting just .136 (3-for-22) lifetime against Garza with two homers and four RBI.

After hitting just .143 in April, Ortiz is batting .359 this month with eight homers and 21 RBI. He slugged a two-run double in the third inning on Tuesday to back six scoreless innings from winning pitcher Jon Lester.

Lester allowed Tampa Bay's only hit, a single to Willy Aybar in the fourth inning, but also walked a season-high five with nine strikeouts to combine with three other pitchers on the shutout. Jonathan Papelbon notched his 11th save of the season and helped the Red Sox win for the seventh time in their last eight games.

"I had a hard time getting into a rhythm," said Lester. "It was one of those nights; it was just kind of a battle from the beginning. I was just not in a rhythm, not in the flow of the game, just kind of had a thick feeling. It's obviously nice to get out of there without any runs."

Jason Bartlett walked three times for the Rays, who have lost three of five since a six-game win streak, and James Shields took a tough-luck loss despite giving up just the two runs over eight innings and retiring the final 16 batters he faced.

"I'm not in any way discouraged," Rays manager Joe Maddon told his team's website. "I just really hate wasting that good of a pitching performance."

Maddon was ejected in the fifth inning along with Carl Crawford for arguing balls and strikes.

Crawford, meanwhile, could have a suspension coming after it appeared his helmet made contact with home-plate umpire Bob Davidson during a heated exchange after a called strike. Tampa Bay could certainly use Crawford tonight as he is 14-for-34 (.412) lifetime versus Lackey with a homer and seven RBI.

The Rays still lead the Yankees by five games for first place in the American League East, while the Red Sox have pulled to within 6 1/2 games.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.