Bradford helps Sooners hold off Longhorns

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/06/2007 - Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sam Bradford threw three touchdown passes to lead 10th-ranked Oklahoma over 19th-ranked Texas, 28-21, in the annual Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl.

Bradford completed 21-of-32 passes for 244 yards without an interception and DeMarco Murray ran for 128 yards and a touchdown for the Sooners (5-1, 1-1 Big 12), who rebounded after suffering a 27-24 loss at Colorado last weekend.

Malcolm Kelly added 105 yards and a score receiving and Jermaine Gresham had two TD catches for Oklahoma, which ended a two-game slide to the Longhorns.

Colt McCoy went 19-of-26 passing for 324 yards with two touchdowns and one interception for Texas (4-2, 0-2), which has now lost two straight after also falling to Kansas State 41-21 last weekend.

Jermichael Finley had four catches for 149 yards with a touchdown for the Longhorns, who couldn't get back into the game after falling behind in the fourth quarter.

After Texas tied the game just three seconds into the fourth quarter, the Sooners went ahead on the ensuing possession. Bradford hit Kelly for a 35-yard touchdown pass on a 3rd-and-5 with 10:42 left, putting Oklahoma ahead 28-21.

Oklahoma then came up with what could have been a back-breaking turnover, but an illegal blocking penalty cost the Sooners great field position. After McCoy's pass went off the hands of Jamaal Charles, Reggie Smith picked it off at the Sooners' 30-yard-line and returned it all the way to the Texas 20. However, the penalty gave Oklahoma the ball at its own 46 instead and the offense ending up having to punt, giving the Longhorns the ball at their own 20.

Texas, however, didn't mount much offense on its drive and later, after regaining possession, turned it over on downs with 1:50 left.

Oklahoma was able to run the clock down to 19 seconds before Garrett Hartley missed a 38-yard field goal, but Texas again failed to move the ball to end the game.

Charles led the Longhorns with 79 rushing yards.

The Sooners started the scoring with just 39 seconds left in the first quarter when Bradford hit Gresham in the back of the end zone for a 7-0 lead. There were two big plays during the drive, as Juaquin Iglesias hauled in a 40- yard pass and Kelly's 41-yard reception that immediately followed brought the ball down to the one-yard-line.

Texas responded with a pair of touchdowns in the second quarter. First, McCoy hit Jordan Shipley with a six-yard TD pass at the 11:36 mark and followed that just over 4 1/2 minutes later with a 22-yard scoring pass to Finley for a 14-7 edge. Finley hauled in a 55-yard pass to setup the first touchdown as well.

The Sooners rallied to go into halftime tied, however, answering with a seven- yard TD pass from Bradford to Gresham with 4:03 remaining until the break. Oklahoma converted three third downs, including the touchdown play, on the drive.

In the third quarter, Murray took the handoff on the first play of the drive, broke around the left end and scampered 65 yards down the sideline for a touchdown with 4:24 left until the fourth.

Texas, though, answered on its ensuing possession, taking the ball 70 yards on nine plays with Vondrell McGee running in from a yard out on the first play of the fourth quarter to tie the game 21-21 just three seconds into the stanza.

Game Notes

Oklahoma was outstanding on third down in the game, converting 9-of-18 third downs for first down...OU also won the time of possession battle, 32:11-27:49...Texas continues to lead the all-time series 57-40-5.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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