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03/14/2010 - Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Teemu Selanne posted a goal and one assist and crept closer to becoming the NHL's all-time leading Finnish goal scorer, as Anaheim topped San Jose, 4-2, at Honda Center.
Selanne posted his 599th career goal, two away from tying him with Hall-of- Famer Jari Kurri for most-ever by a native Finn. Kurri netted 601 scores in 17 seasons with Edmonton, Los Angeles, the New York Rangers, Anaheim and Colorado. In addition, the 39-year-old's next score will make him the 18th player in league history to reach 600.
Corey Perry, Lubomir Visnovsky and Bobby Ryan also lit the lamp for the Ducks, who halted a five-game losing skid. Jonas Hiller stopped 31 shots for the win.
Joe Thornton and Jamie McGinn provided the offense for the Sharks, who have lost two straight since winning three in a row.
Evgeni Nabokov yielded three goals on 32 shots in the setback.
Selanne put the Ducks ahead by a 2-0 count at 7:40 of the first period, when his quick short-side wrister off a dish from Saku Koivu resulted in his 20th goal of the season and got him one closer to Kurri's record.
Visnovsky made it 3-0 with 55 seconds to play in the first, when his knuckler from the point got through an unscreened Nabokov.
In the second period, the Ducks provided Selanne with multiple chances for his milestone marker, but Nabokov shut the door on all three registered shots.
Thornton's power-play deflection got the Sharks on the board at 9:06 of the third, but Hiller managed to turn aside the San Jose attack.
Nabokov went to the bench for an extra skater with 1:24 to play and Ryan hit the empty net seconds later. The San Jose net was empty once more when Kent Huskins provided a shot which McGinn tipped with his leg past Hiller to make it 4-2 with 56 seconds on the clock.
San Jose failed to make a further dent in its deficit, however.
Perry followed up an unsuccessful Ryan rush by chipping the loose puck over a prone Nabokov 3:27 after the opening faceoff.
Game Notes
Selanne has recorded 15 seasons of 20-or-more goals, with nine of them coming with the Anaheim franchise...San Jose did take five of six games in the season series...Prior to the game, the Sharks assigned defenseman Jason Demers to Worcester of the American Hockey League.
<< Westbrook, Durant lead Thunder over Jazz
Oklahoma City, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Russell Westbrook poured in 30 points and
dished out 11 assists, as the Oklahoma City Thunder took down the Utah Jazz,
119-111.
Kevin Durant added 35 points for the Thunder, who have won five in a row
<< North Carolina among NIT field
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Illinois, Arizona State, Virginia Tech and
Mississippi State were anointed as the top seeds for the 32-team 2010 National
Invitation Tournament.
The field was revealed Sunday night, approximately three ho
<< Wild stop surging Blues
St. Paul, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mikko Koivu netted a goal and two assists, and
the Minnesota Wild notched a 4-2 win over the streaking St. Louis Blues at
Xcel Energy Center.
Andrew Brunette and Antti Miettinen both had a goal and an
<< Wade carries Heat over Sixers
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwyane Wade poured in 38 points on 14-of-25
shooting, pacing Miami to a 104-91 wire-to-wire victory over the Philadelphia
76ers.
Udonis Haslem added 13 points and 12 rebounds, and Carlos Arroyo chipped in
Blazers continue playoff push with win over Raptors >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nicolas Batum made 5-of-6 from three-point
land, en route to 22 points, leading Portland to a 109-98 win over Toronto.
LaMarcus Aldridge also provided 22 points to go with 12 rebounds and Brandon
Roy sc
Ducks' Selanne, Getzlaf injured >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Anaheim Ducks forwards Teemu Selanne and Ryan
Getzlaf both suffered injuries on Sunday in a win against San Jose and will be
re-evaluated on Monday.
Selanne, who scored career goal No. 599 in the victory, suf
Report: Blackhawks D Campbell out for regular season after Ovie hit >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Brian Campbell
will reportedly miss the remainder of the regular season after suffering a
broken collarbone when Capitals captain Alexander Ovechkin hit him from behind
in Sund
Sedin twins lead Canucks past Flames >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Twin brothers of Daniel and Henrik Sedin each
registered a goal and an assist, as the Canucks scored three times in the
opening period and turned back the Calgary Flames, 3-1, for their sixth win in
eight g
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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