United States, Sweden a "championship" match

Soccer Betting Lines

09/13/2007 - Chengdu, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - U.S. coach Greg Ryan didn't hesitate to say Friday's game against Sweden is like a "championship" match.

After starting the tournament with a 2-2 draw against North Korea on Tuesday, the top-ranked United States faces an historically tougher opponent with its tournament possibly on the line.

The United States and Sweden, ranked third in the world and the 2003 World Cup runners-up, both tied on Tuesday. If either team pulls out a win on Friday, it would grab a comfortable three-point edge on the other with just one game left in the group stage.

The scenarios are endless, but if the United States lost to Sweden and Group B's other game between North Korea and Nigeria didn't end in a tie on Friday, the Americans would need a victory in their final game just to have a chance to advance.

"(Friday's) an important match, just like every other match at the World Cup and we know that. Obviously, the draw wasn't what we were looking for, but we are going to learn from it and move on," U.S. forward Lindsay Tarpley said.

The United States doesn't want to put itself in a situation where it needs to watch the scoreboard on Monday morning when its playing its last game. That's why Ryan didn't understate the importance of the Sweden game.

"I think this group is like playing a semifinal and a final in our first two games," Ryan said. "That's the quality of the teams."

If there's any advantage between the two world powers on Friday, it goes to the United States.

The Americans lead the all-time series 14-3-5, and are 2-0 in the World Cup against Sweden. The United States beat Sweden in the group stage of the '91 tournament, 3-2, and in the group stage of the '03 event, 3-1.

The United States has also won the last two meetings between the teams, 3-2. Overall, the winner of the last five meetings between the teams - Sweden's only win during the stretch was in March of 2004 - has scored three goals.

Ryan expects offense - especially off set plays - to again be the difference, and he has to feel good about having an offensive duo as good as any. Captain Kristine Lilly has 126 goals in her career, and Abby Wambach - who scored in the tie with North Korea - has 78.

If there is a country that can come close to matching the American stars, it's Sweden. Hanna Ljungberg has 71 career goals and Victoria Svensson - who scored the team's lone goal in a 1-1 tie with Nigeria - has 59.

"Usually it's the big players that decide games. Not always, but now it's a question of 'can the USA's top players create that advantage for the U.S.? Can Sweden's top players create the advantage?'" Ryan said.

Both sides have plenty of other firepower as well, as the United States showed with Heather O'Reilly scoring the crucial tying goal against North Korea. The Swedes also feature young 6-foot striker Lotta Schelin, Sweden's Female Player of the Year in 2006.

"Sweden is very good in the air and very strong," U.S. midfielder Shannon Boxx said.

Although the United States failed to win its opener for just the second time in five World Cups - it tied China in its first game in 1995 - it should be a little more settled after six players made their Cup debuts on Tuesday.

The United States has won its second game in the previous four World Cups by combined scores of 19-1, but it hasn't faced a team as good as Sweden in its second match before.

Although Sweden's tie against Nigeria was a bit of a shocker, it was the first result the Swedes have ever gotten in their first game of a World Cup. Sweden was winless in its previous four Cup openers.

"We were unlucky at times (against Nigeria), but now we have to get our heads right and come out better in our next two games," Svensson told FIFA.com.

Neither team has ever failed to reach the quarterfinals in any of the previous four World Cups.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.